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Tuesday, February 26, 2008

Fitch projects 50% foreclosure rate

By Alan White

Foreclosure_2     In a new presentation entitled Update on U.S. RMBS, Performance, Expectations, Criteria, Fitch Ratings now projects that 50% of the subprime mortgages from the fourth quarter of 2006 in rated securitizations will end in foreclosure. They also project loss severity of 60%, meaning that investors will recover only 40% of the principal and interest due on the mortgages after foreclosure, resulting in losses of 30%. These numbers are astounding. Fitch makes similar predictions for the other 2006 and 2007 "vintages" of subprime mortgages. Given total subprime mortgage originations for the two years of almost $1 trillion, a loss rate of 30% would represent $300 billion. As Senator Dirksen once said, "a billion here, a billion there. . . ."

Needless to say, this will also means millions of homes lost.

Posted by Alan White on Tuesday, February 26, 2008 at 12:59 PM in Foreclosure Crisis | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Monday, February 25, 2008

Table of Contents for the Forthcoming Issue of the Journal of Consumer Affairs

Joca_3  Here is the table of contents for for the forthcoming Spring 2008 issue of Journal of Consumer Affairs (Volume 42, Number 1 ):
2008 Distinguished ACCI Fellows

Editorial Prelude: Remembering Luminary Leaders Stewart M. Lee and E. Scott Maynes
            Brenda J. Cude

No Pain, No Strain: Impact of Health on the Financial Security of Older Americans
            Hyungsoo Kim and Angela C. Lyons

The Effects of Summary Information on Consumer Perceptions of Mutual Fund Characteristics
            John Kozup, Elizabeth Howlett, and Michael Pagano

Recognizing Consumer Issues in DTC Pharmaceutical Advertising
            Marla B. Royne and Susan D. Myers

Bits Briefs & Applications
What Am I Drinking? The Effects of Serving Facts Information on Alcohol Beverage Containers
            My Bui, Scot Burton, Elizabeth Howlett, and John Kozup

Notes & Observations
Use, Misuse, and Abuse of Content Analysis for Research on the Consumer Interest
            Les Carlson

Potential and Pitfalls of Applying Theory to the Practice of Financial Education
            Angela C. Lyons and Urvi Neelakantan

Measuring What Really Matters to Consumers
            Robert N. Mayer
            
Editorial Postlude
            How Do You Know That?
            Herbert Jack Rotfeld

Posted by Jeff Sovern on Monday, February 25, 2008 at 04:47 PM in Advertising, Consumer Law Scholarship | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Saturday, February 23, 2008

Astroturfing? You Decide

By Alan White

With the avowed purpose of rebutting the policy research of the Center for Responsible Lending, a group calling itself the Consumers Rights League has launched a web site and garnered an article in Forbes critizing the work of CRL (the original one, not the new one.) Interestingly, the new group has consciously adopted the same acronym as its nemesis, who they refer to as a "predatory charity." The new group's web site offers no information about its staff, board or funding. Their mission statement, however, offers some clues as to who might be behind this new .org:

• We will document the benefits consumers receive from the democratization of credit through research and analysis.
• We will quantify the costs consumers will bear if these options are restricted.
• We will leverage the interests of millions of consumers to preserve their rights and expose the self-dealing of many within the “consumer activist” community through public education.
• We will protect consumers’ right to choose given the benefits consumers enjoy through a wide range of options.

In the past year, the Responsible Lending folks have gained considerable credibility for having sounded the alarm about reckless subprime mortgage lending. Their research on foreclosures is widely cited, even by political opponents. (I should note that I recently joined their Research Advisory Council). While the new CRL might be legitimate, one is inclined to suspect astroturfing.

(Click here for another example of astroturfing in the realm of consumer protection)

Posted by Alan White on Saturday, February 23, 2008 at 12:34 PM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Friday, February 22, 2008

Times Reports on Federal Bailout for Mortgage Crisis, the Riegel v. Medtronic Medical Device Case, and CPSC

The lead story in today's Times reports that "the Bush administration and Congress are considering costly new proposals for the government to rescue hundreds of thousands of homeowners whose mortgages are higher than the value of their houses."  According to the article, "nearly 8.8 million homeowners, or 10.3 percent of the total, are underwater."  Among the ideas being considered are "a federal mortgage guarantee for troubled borrowers . . . [and us[ing] government funds to purchase and refinance billions of dollars in mortgages now in danger of default."`  Meanwhile, on Monday the Times ran a story, "No Lull in Mortgage Pitches," about just that.  The article mentions advertising by Countrywide and the Bank of America, which is in the process of acquiring Countrywide, while today's piece notes that the Bank of America has proposed that a federal agency buy delinquent mortgages at a "deep discount."  Bank of America knows how to make a strong argument.

The Times has devoted a lot of space to the Supreme Court's Riegel v. Medtronic decision on medical devices and preemption.  An editorial in today's paper, "No Recourse for the Injured," criticizes the decision.  Here is an article about the effect of the decision on pending law suits.  Yesterday's issue had a news analysis, "Justices Add Legal Complications to Debate on F.D.A.'s Competence."  An excerpt:

The Institute of Medicine, the Government Accountability Office and the F.D.A.’s own science board have all issued reports concluding that poor management and scientific inadequacies have made the agency incapable of protecting the country against unsafe drugs, medical devices and food.

A result, said David Vladeck, a professor at Georgetown University Law Center, is that the public is facing the worst of both worlds: a government health agency that cannot protect them and rules that block them from winning compensation when injured.

Wednesday's paper included "Sears Case Cited by Critics of Safety Panel," which reported on criticism of the CPSC by Public Citizen.

Posted by Jeff Sovern on Friday, February 22, 2008 at 03:36 PM in Consumer Legislative Policy, Consumer Product Safety, Predatory Lending | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Thursday, February 21, 2008

Short Refis coming?

By Alan White

Picture_1A big stumbling block to renegotiating mortgages in danger of foreclosure is the reality that many homeowners now owe more than their home is worth. This situation is sometimes referred to as being "underwater." Servicers of securitized mortgages (prime and subprime) are often willing to write down the amount due on the mortgage if the homeowner is selling (and has a buyer.) Servicers are much less willing to write down the principal loan amount to the home value to allow a homeowner to refinance with a cheaper or less risky mortgage that will permit them to save their home: a "short refi." The concept of writing loan balances down to market value is familiar in the commercial real estate sector, but seems for some reason more controversial for consumer and residential loans, despite the fact that in many cases a short refi will yield a better return for the investor than a foreclosure.

Johnreich1Buried in a story in today's Wall Street Journal is a report that some servicers may start getting strong federal agency encouragement to do short refis. John Reich, director of the Office of Thrift Supervision, regulator of federal savings banks (like WaMu) revealed that OTS is working on a short refi plan. The other part of his announcement today was that the thrift industry lost $5.2 billion in the 4th quarter of 2007, and that we should expect to see some thrift failures in the coming year.

Today's Washington Post provides more details (login required). Lenders writing down mortgages would receive negative equity certificates that might have some market value, to mitigate their losses. Not clear how the negative equity interest would retain value yet permit the refinancing lender to get an insurable first mortgage.

Posted by Alan White on Thursday, February 21, 2008 at 01:57 PM in Predatory Lending | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Tuesday, February 19, 2008

OCC's Response to Spitzer's Charge that the Bush Administration Worsened the Mortgage Crisis by Preempting State Laws

Last week, Brian blogged here about Governor Spitzer's claim that the Bush administration contributed to the mortgage crisis by preempting state attempts to bar predatory lending.  Comptroller of the Currency John C. Dugan responded by issuing the following statement last Thursday:

Almost everyone who has paid attention to the subprime lending crisis has concluded that OCC-regulated national banks were not the problem.  Instead, the worst abuses came from loans originated by state-licensed mortgage brokers and lenders that are exclusively the responsibility of state regulators.

However, comments from today assert that the OCC and national bank preemption have prevented the states from taking action against predatory or abusive lenders.  That’s just plain wrong.

The OCC extensively regulates the activities of national banks, including mortgage lending.  The OCC established strong protections against predatory lending practices years ago, and has applied those standards through examinations of every national bank.  As a result, predatory mortgage lenders have avoided national banks like the plague.  The abuses consumers have complained about most — such as loan flipping and equity stripping — are not tolerated in the national banking system.  And the looser lending practices of the subprime market simply have not gravitated to national banks: They originated just 10% of subprime loans in 2006, when underwriting standards were weakest, and delinquency rates on those loans are well below the national average.

Nothing the OCC has done has prevented the states from regulating and preventing abuses among the lenders that they license – lenders that are the source of most of today’s problems.  The states have ample authority – as well as clear responsibility – to set standards for these lenders and enforce them.  It defies logic to argue that preemption was an impediment.  National banks are bound to obey the strict standards enforced by the OCC everywhere they operate – even in states that had far less rigorous standards.  The states should have applied equally rigorous standards to the non-bank lenders that were responsible for the bulk of the problems.

I'm not sure who Comptroller Dugan means when he refers to "[a]lmost everyone who has paid attention to the subprime lending crisis" since he doesn't cite any sources (not that one would necessarily expect that in a statement of this sort).  Here, by the way, is an excerpt from our casebook, written before the subprime crisis burst, that cites some relevant sources, though they cover an earlier time period than the one Comptroller Dugan is referring to:

One critic claims that national bank operating subsidiaries originated nearly a quarter of total subprime loans in 2003.  See Baher Azmy, Squaring the Predatory Lending Circle: A Case for States as Laboratories of Experimentation, 57 Fla. L. Rev. 295, 359 (2005). See also Arthur E. Wilmarth, Jr., The OCC’s Preemption Rules Exceed the Agency’s Authority and Present a Serious Threat to the Dual Banking System and Consumer Protection, 23 Ann. Rev. Banking & Fin. L. 225, 314-15 (2004) (“most of the largest subprime mortgage lenders are nonbank affiliates of major bank holding companies. . . . a number of [national bank subsidiaries] have produced serious allegations of abusive lending practices.”).    Preemption of state law as to nonbank subsidiaries is particularly significant because such subsidiaries are not routinely examined by federal regulators.  GAO Report at 49, 51-53

Posted by Jeff Sovern on Tuesday, February 19, 2008 at 01:33 PM in Consumer Legislative Policy, Predatory Lending, Preemption | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)

Monday, February 18, 2008

One Option: Nationalization

By Alan White

Picture_1
The British government decided Sunday to nationalize Northern Rock, the troubled U.K. mortgage bank, rather than permit its sale to private investors. Northern Rock, a mortgage lender that relied heavily on securitization, faced a classic bank run in August when its depositors learned of its precarious financial position. (More background on the Northern Rock collapse.) In his comments to the press, PM Gordon Brown credited this bold approach with protecting the U.K. from experiencing the financial meltdown now facing U.S. markets. While there have been proposals in the U.S. for various sorts of bail-outs of insurers and mortgage investors, I am not aware of any proposals to nationalize Countrywide.

Posted by Alan White on Monday, February 18, 2008 at 02:57 PM in Foreclosure Crisis, Predatory Lending | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

SSRN vs Law Journals

Law4_2
Logo_socialWhile consumer law may do poorly in top-ranked law journals, there is considerable interest in consumer law scholarship as measured by downloads of papers from the Social Science Research Network (SSRN). The ContractsProf blog recently noted that six of the top ten papers (by download stats) on the SSRN Journal of Contract and Commercial Law are devoted in whole or in part to consumer law. Should we care more about law journals or open access publishing on SSRN? For one view on the subject, consider this essay by Michael Madison.

Posted by Alan White on Monday, February 18, 2008 at 01:11 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Sunday, February 17, 2008

Senate Negotiators Appear to Agree on CPSC Reform Bill

This article from yesterday's Washington Post reports that Democratic Senators Mark Pryor and Daniel Inouye and Republican Senator Ted Stevens have agreed on legislation to reform the Consumer Product Safety Commission. The article says that the bill would, among other things, more than double the CPSC's budget over the next eight years. Other attributes of the bill are set out in the Post article. The Senate is expected to vote on the bill in early March. The House passed CPSC legislation last December, but, as the Post article notes, the House bill is not identical to the Senate bill.

Posted by Brian Wolfman on Sunday, February 17, 2008 at 08:40 AM in Consumer Legislative Policy, Consumer Product Safety | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Saturday, February 16, 2008

Predatory Lending -- Short and to the Point

On Monday, the Washington Post published an article on payday lending in Virginia. Today, the Post published a letter to the editor written by someone named Leonard J. Koenick, whose letter was apparently prompted by Monday's article.  Here it is:

Payday loans are not the only predatory lending system allowed in Virginia.

I'm a lawyer, and a client recently came to me with something called a "motor vehicle equity line of credit." For the "privilege" of borrowing $300, she had to first pay a $150 "membership fee" and was charged 300 percent interest. Her finance charge was $79.44 per month and, of course, that was only the interest. Her collateral was her car, and she had to give the lender a duplicate car key. She missed one payment; they took her car and sold it.

If that isn't criminal, it should be.

Posted by Brian Wolfman on Saturday, February 16, 2008 at 10:34 AM in Predatory Lending | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

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