by Jeff Sovern
Each year, colleges and universities hike tuition, typically by more than the rate of inflation. Competition among schools undoubtedly constrains the hikes to some extent, but are there any other limits? An economist might say that it makes sense to pay tuition as long as the tuition is less than the present value of the expected lifetime benefits of the education, minus the opportunity costs. Put another way, if the amount you receive in the form of increased salary over your lifetime after going to college is higher than the amount you would earn without a degree, which is what has consistently been reported, it makes sense to pay tuition as long as the tuition is less than the present value of that increase. That formulation overlooks the nonpecuniary benefits of education, which are substantial, but if you could quantify those benefits, you would add them to the expected benefits as well. In any event, it suggests that when the costs of education exceed the benefits, people should stop paying tuition.
That should work the same way for law schools as well, except that we’re comparing incomes as lawyers with incomes as non-lawyers for college grads. We’ve already seen some signs that law school tuition has risen high enough to price some people who formerly went to law schools out of the market. In my early years as a law teacher, our school had a substantial number of students who saw becoming a lawyer as a second long-term career; many were retiring after twenty years or so as teachers or police officers, for example. Most of them were enrolled in our part time night program, but some went full-time during the day. The number of such students has dropped dramatically with a correspondingly dramatic shift in the character of the night program. I can’t be certain, but I suspect that a contributing factor is that they can no longer expect to earn enough in the years between beginning their second career and retirement to justify spending money on the much higher tuitions we and other law schools charge. I haven’t researched the matter, but friends at other law schools with night programs have told me that their programs too have many fewer students who see law school as a doorway to such a second long term career. Those students used to enrich our classes by bringing in relevant experiences, and we’ve lost that (though in return we’ve gained greater financial resources to do other things), plus society has lost whatever benefits accrue from having lawyers with substantial experience in other careers.

