By Alan White
Two
important reports on the foreclosure crisis and the Administration’s plan to
end it were released on Friday. So
far the Home Affordable modification program (HAMP) is looking like an expensive failure. Most disturbing
is the conversion rate of temporary modifications to permanent ones, which is
less than 4% for temporary mods initiated last April and May. Servicer performance remains wildly
inconsistent, and hundreds of thousands of homeowners who want to save their
homes are slipping through the cracks.
The good news, I suppose, is that HAMP stimulated servicers to find half
a million homeowners who appear to be suited for modifications rather than
foreclosures.
Treasury’s report of September data continues the approach of jealously guarding information about HAMP that does not cast it in a positive light. The October monthly data report consists mostly of useless fluff, i.e. a bar graph showing the cumulative number of trial modifications, rather than simply reporting month-by-month totals, as HOPE NOW did. The monthly totals of temporary modifications for July, August and September are around 100,000 to 120,000, basically the same number as the permanent modifications the industry was doing voluntarily before HAMP. In fairness, servicers also closed 50,000 to 70,000 permanent modifications during those months, without HAMP subsidies.
Treasury chose not to reveal the number of permanent modifications in September, which are appallingly low. That information appears in the Congressional Oversight Panel’s report on HAMP. After six months and 487,000 trial modifications, HAMP has resulted in fewer than 1,800 permanent modifications. Nearly half of the permanent mods were done by a single servicer, Ocwen. Even if we consider only the 50,130 temporary mods reported for the first two months of HAMP (April and May), the conversion rate is shockingly low. The policy wonks who came up with the trial modification plan assumed that after culling out the homeowners who failed to make three payments, the rest of the trial mods would seamlessly convert to permanent mods in month four, given that three months should be sufficient to get the necessary paperwork in place. It seems highly doubtful that 96% of homeowners with April and May trial mods were not able to make three payments. The problem, therefore, must lie in servicers obtaining and completing the income verification and written agreement necessary to conclude a permanent mod.