Is the foreclosure crisis slowly beginning to end?

According to this article in today's New York Times:

Even as the fight over foreclosures continues, the high tide of delinquency among homeowners has begun to recede. Households that are behind in their mortgage payments fell during the third quarter to 13.52 percent, from 14.42 percent in the second quarter, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported on Thursday. It was the lowest delinquency rate since the beginning of 2009, just as the financial crisis began hitting home.

Why? The worst hit people have moved out, some mortgages have been modified (allowing some homeowners to stay), and an improving economy.

Comments

[Alan White]

I would hesitate to jump to conclusions. The total of all delinquent loans, including those in foreclosures, was down hardly at all, by 19 basis points, i.e. 0.19%, from the prior quarter. The total of 13.78% of all mortgages is still quadruple the normal level. We are still essentially at the peak of a tidal wave, and looking at an inventory that will take five years or more to process at the current rate. Think of it this way: defaults started to rise in 2006 and took four years to get to where they are now. It could take as long or longer to go down the other side of the curve, and I would want to see two or three quarters of declines before even concluding that we are past the peak.