by Jeff Sovern
The article, by Kate Berry and Ian McKendry, is headlined Fight to kill CFPB arbitration rule could rest on whose data is right. Here's some of what the article says about the OCC claims, though the article has more than I can insert here.
"The uncertainty of the OCC's estimate is very large, it's a very noisy estimate, and there is quite a high chance that
the true effect is zero," said John Campbell, the Morton L. and Carole S. Olshan Professor of Economics at Harvard
University, who is a member of the CFPB's Consumer Advisory board. "The CFPB argues in its defense that the
effect can't be a large number like 3% because it's ridiculously large, relative to any reasonable estimates or costs
based on past class-action suits."
* * *
Other economists challenged the OCC's data, casting doubt on anyone's ability to predict consumers costs
resulting from the rule.
"Any statistically significant results would be highly questionable given the level of noise in the data," Alexei
Alexandrov, a senior economist at Amazon and a former senior economist at the CFPB, who had written a paper
that was the basis for the CFPB's own arbitration study.
* * *
However, Ted Frank, a senior attorney and director at the Competitive Enterprise Institute's Center for Class Action
Fairness, said that even if the CFPB's study found that an increase in credit card rates was not statistically
significant, that "does not mean it's not significant."
"They often cherry-pick their data," said Frank. "To say it's not statistically significant, therefore there's no effect,
that's wrong. What you can say is, we can't be confident there is an effect but there probably is an effect, and more
study is needed."
I'm not sure what the basis is for Frank's claim that there probably is an effect, but I'm not a statistician by any means. If not using arbitration clauses increased lending costs, I remain confused why more credit card issuers don't use arbitration clauses out of self-interest (roughly half don't use arbitration clauses), or alternatively, where are the credit card issuers that don't use arbitration clauses and are charging more than those who don't? I keep waiting for someone who supports the OCC position on this to address that point, but I'm not aware of anyone who has. Perhaps that's because they can't.
UPDATE: Please see the comment below for the basis of Frank's claim and an argument for why some credit card issuers don't use arbitration clauses.